This newsletter gives you highlights of selected sustainability insights that were, perhaps, too long (you) didn’t read (TLDR) or there’s just too much out there to read. The highlights presented cover insights gleaned from a global, regional (African), and national (Kenyan) perspective. Happy reading!
GLOBAL
World Population Prospects 2024
Understanding population trends is integral to sustainable development. According to UN DESA population trends are more predictable than the global economic and technological advances trends. So, perhaps it is well worth paying more attention to the trends of population growth, ageing, urbanization and migration as they shape our world; and then, in turn, shape economic and technological trends.
The recent 28th edition of World Population Prospects 2024 report from the UN, presents vital insights for decision-makers in government and private sector. Here are some interesting highlights:
- Global population will peak within this century, and this is sooner and will be at a lower level than previously expected around mid-2080s; and then will gradually decline by the end of the century.
- Demographic outlooks are diverse with some countries having high and rapid growth, while others have low growth, and some even decline. However, all populations are headed towards a similar path of longer lives, smaller families, this is called the demographic transition.
- 63 countries which include China, Germany, Japan, Russia, will peak before 2024. 48 countries which include Brazil, Iran, Turkey, Vietnam, will peak between 2025 – 2054.
- The remaining 126 countries which include the USA, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Indonesia, will continue to grow through 2054 possibly peaking later this century or beyond 2100. This group’s population change will significantly influence the size and timing of global population peak and its level.
- Women today are having one child less than in 1990s. Increasing the age at which women have their 1st child slows population growth and optimizes resources for sustainable development.
- Momentum from past growth is the main driver for global population increase up to mid-century. By 2080, people over 65 years will outnumber children under 18 years globally.
- Countries that peaked in 2024 as well as those set to peak between 2025 – 2054, have a limited time to benefit economically from their youthful populations. For some countries, immigration will be their main driver of future growth e.g. populations in Italy, Germany, Russia would have peaked sooner without immigration.
- Gender equality and women’s empowerment helps counter rapid population growth or decline.
- Globally, mortality has decreased and life expectancy has increased in leaps and bounds over the past 3 decades.
My two-cents: Decision-makers need to use population data to plan ahead, to understand current and future needs of their countries/populations and ensure effective and relevant sustainability development strategies are in place, this goes for private sector which is reliant on the society (the population) for their talent pool and work force, customers, investors, suppliers, etc.
In late 2022, the world’s population hit 8 billion people, and today it is still growing. Population boils down to ‘a woman, a couple, a family deciding on children – then you can aggregate that to get to national population’ – children, family is often personal choice yet, when extrapolated, has national and eventually global implications. Whether at household level or national level family sizes need to be discussed, planned and managed.
Global Sustainability Leaders 2024
Globescan and ERM Sustainability Institute, published their annual global sustainability leaders 2024 report. About 500 sustainability experts across 60+ countries participated in this survey to present perspectives on key themes influencing the sustainability agenda.
Key perspectives presented in the report were that:
- Globally, sustainability legislation, regulation and frameworks are a significant and important lever to driving the sustainability agenda e.g. recent EU, and US regulations as well as international reporting guidelines like the IFRS.
- Climate change is still the most pressing sustainability challenge, but nature-related issues such as biodiversity loss, deforestation, water scarcity and pollution; are now also significant and pressing global sustainability issues.
- Sustainability backlash, particularly in the US, is impacting the sustainability agenda; but it’s unclear whether this backlash will actually slow the transition to sustainability.
- Patagonia, Unilever, Natura & Co and IKEA are seen as the top corporate sustainability leaders. Nordic countries and Germany top the list of governments/countries driving sustainability; with Costa Rica, Japan and Singapore also featuring on the list.
- The top 3 criteria for a corporate sustainability leader were: integrated sustainability into strategy; evidence of impact/action; and integrating sustainability into the supply chain.
- WWF topped the not-for-profit leader board, followed by Greenpeace and Nature Conservancy. Business-led networks, Global Compact and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), also made the not-for-profits leaders list.
- Regionally, leaders were more diversified. In North America – Patagonia; Europe – Unilever; Latin-America; Natura & Co; Asia Pacific – Tata Group.
- Industry sustainability leadership is led by forest products, life sciences, Information Communication & Technology (ICT), electric utilities; while the extractive industries is rated lowest for its sustainability transition.
My two-cents: I like sharing insights from this report, as it gives a quick leader board perspective on sustainability leadership – and if you’re like me, you like a way to gauge ‘what good looks like’and ‘what needs to be done to get there’. It also highlights which issues sustainability peers are keeping top-of-mind, a useful gauge for any practitioner. As more sustainability experts from more regions and countries participate in this survey, I anticipate the survey will continue to deepen its regional insights.
AFRICA
African Disability Protocol Becomes Legally Binding
In June 2024, the African Disability Protocol (ADP) came into force, becoming legally binding across the African Union’s 55 member states/countries. This milestone is thanks to the efforts of disability rights organisation’s, like Sightsavers, who have been relentlessly championing the rights of people with disability across the continent from the Protocol’s adoption in 2018 to it becoming a pan-African legally binding agreement mid-2024. More than 80 million people on the continent live with disability.
The Africa Disability Protocol is a human rights treaty tailored to Africa’s unique socio-cultural context. It ensures countries carry out their duty to create and enact law that tackles discrimination and inequality of people with disability. The protocol tackles systemic issues related to access to education, healthcare, and employment faced by people with disability; cultural issues related to harmful customs, beliefs and traditional practices; the role of caregivers, family and community; and rights for minority groups including people with albinism. Importantly, the ADP, will allow citizens to hold their governments accountable to providing public services for all citizens including those with disabilities.
Recently, the Republic of Congo ratified the protocol which brought the total number of ratifications up to 15 countries, making the disability protocol legally binding across the continent.
My two-cents: Many a time I am reminded of the conscious and unconscious discriminations and inequalities in our societies (including my own). This legally binding African Disability Protocol will hopefully be a monumental legislative milestone for more equality for people with disability (yes, I didn’t say equity – which is yet another hurdle to cross). A key ingredient to the protocol’s successful realization will also be much needed mindset change – opening up our perspectives and ways of life to different (and all) abilities.
Green Jobs in Africa Forecast
Delivering a green economy agenda can create millions of green jobs across Africa in the next six years (2030), highlights a recent report by FSD Africa, Shortlist and Boston Consulting Group. The study focused on workforce needs in 5 countries – South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Democratic Republic of Congo. About 60% of the green jobs created will require a skilled workforce – 10% university degrees, 30% vocational training, 20% administrative. About 70% of these green jobs will be in the renewable energy sector.
Africa’s low-carbon economic growth will require different skills and knowledge development, which policy makers, educators, labour developers, need to rapidly prepare and invest in (if they aren’t doing this already) to meet this demand.
The country’s focused on, are already working towards renewable energy: Although coal remains South Africa’s energy mainstay, the country is working towards its just energy transition from coal to clean energy. In Nigeria, renewable energy is about 20% of its energy mix; Ethiopia’s main energy source is hydropower – making its primary energy source non-fossil based. Kenya has over 85% renewable energy in its energy mix, thanks to geothermal energy, and for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) majority of its energy is already renewable.
South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria will have the highest job creation opportunity, with solar being the most important contributor in Kenya and South Africa. While hydroelectric will drive jobs in DRC and Ethiopia. Agriculture and nature will also produce significant green job opportunities as will climate smart agricultural technology.
My two-cents: Industrialisation that leads to local job creation is desperately needed in these 5 markets, and across the continent to tackle the human development challenges the continent faces. The jobs created and the opportunities presented by green industralisation will need to translate into better living standards and development for Africans – in line with the Africa We Want (Agenda 2063).
KENYA
Kenya’s Carbon Markets Regulations, 2024
Kenya recently published its carbon markets regulations under the Climate Change Act to guide carbon projects implementation in the country. This is an important regulation as Kenya already trades in carbon – accounting for about 20% of Africa’s carbon credits, and this trade is expected to grow exponentially. As such, the regulations will apply to any participant in carbon markets (voluntary and compliance).
Drawn from a summary provided by EY, notable aspects of the regulation are:
- Creation of a Designated National Authority (DNA) to oversee the carbon market transactions and it will be supported by the Climate Change Directorate and a committee of multi-sectoral stakeholders.
- The DNA will be the National Registrar of the National Carbon Registry – keeping confidential records of carbon projects across 6 key sectors: energy, transport, agriculture, forestry, industrial processes and waste sectors.
- Governing carbon markets trading including compliance, project ownership, keeping to standards and safeguards, impact assessments, certification and validation, aligning to law, contribution to Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), sustainable development, poverty alleviation, and community involvement.
- The government will also seek to provide fiscal and non-fiscal incentives for projects to support development of carbon projects.
- Carbon projects will also be required to provide annual social contributions. Land-based projects must provide 40% of their earnings to community development, non-land based projects provide 25% to community development and an additional 25% to the Climate Change Fund.
- The Climate Change Fund will receive funding from the Designated National Authority that will remit 50% of corresponding adjustment fees, and 25% of earnings payable by non-land based projects (mentioned above).
Kenya has taken a leading role in driving climate action on the African continent, this included co-hosting Africa’s first-ever climate summit, with the African Union, in late 2023. This summit delivered the Nairobi declaration a joint Africa position on climate.
Kenya’s carbon markets regulations are a vital milestone in helping the country manage and grow its carbon markets opportunity to address its climate action needs. The EU’s Emissions Trading Systems (ETS), launched in 2005, was the world’s first carbon markets and today, it is the world’s largest carbon market. Nearly 20 years since its inception, the EU ETS remains a ‘cornerstone’ of the EU’s climate policy. In May this year, the USA ramped up efforts to improve its carbon markets.
My two-cents: There maybe debate on the effectiveness of carbon markets. Either way, it is important to remember is that carbon markets are and will remain an integral tool for countries to act on climate providing financing and in meeting their Paris Agreement commitments. Carbon markets will continue to dominate global and national climate conversations and action, including across the African continent.